Evaluación multicriterio y los modelos de distribución potencial: Herramientas clave para la mitigación del cambio climático y la conservación del jaguar (Panthera onca) en el noreste de México y sur de EUA

Multi-criteria assessment and potential distribution models: Key tools for climate change mitigation and jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation in northeastern Mexico and southern USA

Abstract

To carry out jaguar (Panthera onca) conservation protocols, it is essential to determine the species' habitat suitability. Therefore, the objective of this study is to analyze the spatial suitability for the conservation of Panthera onca in the northeast of México and the southern United States as a measure to mitigate the effects of climate change. Evaluating the spatial suitability of jaguar habitat in these regions will help implement conservation measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on the species. This leads to answering the question: What is the optimal jaguar habitat in the selected area, and how can this information be used to mitigate the effects of climate change through conservation measures? A potential distribution model and a multicriteria evaluation were used. The average training AUC for the models run is 0.86. Additionally, the multicriteria evaluation method is consistent (CR = 0.0725), indicating that the criteria selected for the jaguar's habitat are appropriate and favorable. In the study area, there are 1,257,650 ha that meet the conditions of almost continuous suitable habitat for the jaguar, both in México and the USA, which are not currently considered for conservation of this feline in either country. These techniques generate cartography that can assist in making decisions regarding conservation, preservation, reintroduction, and management of this feline in the face of climate change.